Several people have asked me to write a blog post about the kind of society I see as emerging out of the Covid-19 epidemic, one that learns lessons from the pandemic and reorients itself in a more compassionate direction. This request joins a long lineage of requests for descriptions of the future, from what an eco-socialist BC might look like, how the Pacific Northwest might look with a bioregional system of political economy, what a post-imperial global order might look like.
It is not so much that I refuse to do these things as that I cannot do these things. The feats of imagination being asked of me are far beyond any human’s imaginative capacity. Furthermore, the belief that such feats are within the capabilities of human beings in our present moment, is, itself, dangerous.
Marxist and poststructuralist thinkers have a lot more in common than is often credited, especially in this day and age when fake intellectuals like Jordan Peterson try to conflate them. But one area of considerable overlap is the understanding that the system of relationships that comprise a social order, whether we call it a “stage of history” or an “episteme,” is the understanding that what we can imagine is profoundly conditioned by that order. The human imagination is never unfettered; it is always circumscribed by culture and knowledge. Late stage capitalism opens us to certain new areas of imagination—how a sexualized ideal of ourselves might look in our mind’s eye, new possible flavours of ice cream, how to appropriate and commodify some part of another’s imagination or our own—but it also works to dim or eliminate all kinds of imagining. And yet, at the same time, we are told that imagination is pre-social, individual and unfettered by material or cultural conditions. One of the central lies of capitalism is that it does not fetter the imagination. And we often can only guess at what it is that we have lost the capacity to imagine, given that we have lost it.
That is not to say that I do not expend huge amounts of my mental energy imagining places and times other than this one, in the past, in the future, or in a universe with different physical properties. Indeed, doing this has been one of the greatest and longest-standing passions of my life. Since being prescribed the Basic D&D boxed set by a child psychiatrist in 1981, I have spent thousands of hours imagining different worlds, different societies and sharing them with my friends.
As an adult, I became a historian and completed a PhD and postdoctoral fellowship not just in the study of the past but in the study of the imaginary past of the Mormon church, one in which God is from the planet Kolob and in which people called the Jaredites traveled from Eurasia to North America in submarines four thousand years ago.
But just as the Book of Mormon is actually a commentary on Jacksonian America, its controversies, limitations and imagination, my games are simply essays on the limitations of the late capitalist imaginary; no one is so special as to transcend it.
That stated, it does seem to be true that those most capable of imagining a future different from today are those most versed in the wide array of human societies of the past and present, historians, folklorists, classicists, medievalists and anthropologists who can use the physical and documentary evidence left by other societies to try and reach outside the imaginative limitations of our own.
That is why I have always treasured Brian Fawcett’s Cambodia, a book in which Fawcett tries to reach outside his own consciousness to report on the thoughts of his dead friend while engaging in an extended meditation on Pol Pot’s Cambodia. Fawcett’s ultimate conclusion is this: the main thing that conditions our ability to imagine possible futures is our ability to remember the past.
That is why the Khmer Rouge and other despotic movements attempt to obliterate knowledge of the past or replace it, whole cloth, with an “all now” consciousness in which human nature and human society have always been essentially identical, with the only thing in flux being labour-saving technology. In Pol Pot’s Cambodia, the term “revolution” was redefined as “return to the past.”
Perhaps the most clear-headed thinker political thinker on the limitations of the human imagination and how these limitations impeded the revolutionary project was Vladimir Lenin. Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels had argued, in original dialectical materialism, that the capacity and will to rise up against capitalism and smash it varied directly with how alienated capitalism had made a person, not just in the Marxian economic sense but in the larger social and cultural sense this encompassed.
People who did not control when they went to work or when they came home, who did not own their tools, who did not own their homes, who were cut off from cultural production and participation: these would be the people who would take up arms against capitalism: the working class of England, Germany, the Netherlands and France.
Lenin saw it more clearly. Rising up against this alienation was contingent on the ability to imagine something different. And the ability to imagine something different was contingent on the ability to remember something different. Consequently, he came to believe that Russia’s highly distinctive way of industrializing made it the best candidate for revolution.
Most of the industrial proletariat of Western Europe had become factory workers as part of a multigenerational process of dispossession and urbanizatioin. The workers in the steel mills of England, France, Germany and the Netherlands were mostly from families whose ties to the villages where they once farmed had been slowly cut over more than a century. Even if someone had migrated from the countryside in their own lifetime, the countryside they left was one whose feudal obligations and common lands had vanished long before. First, feudal title changed into fee simple title and then lords turned into landlords; inherited peasant land became rented land; the rural poor descended from renter, to debt peon to part of a landless and increasingly mobile rural proletariat. Urban, industrial labour was not an alternative to life as a peasant on aristocratic or common lands but an alternative to life as a migrant agricultural labourer.
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Consequently, what made economic and political sense was for boyars to open factories in St. Petersburg or Moscow and then simply uproot a portion of their serfs from their rural estate and staff the factory with them. Even the factory workers who had urbanized less coercively had typically done so within a generation or two, not within five generations, meaning that nearly everyone in a Russian factory retained a memory of owning their tools, inheriting their home and making most of the things they needed in their local community.
Lenin understood that there is a difference between alienation and consciousness of alienation. Alienation is the reason to revolt. Consciousness of alienation is the motivation to revolt. Or, in Fawcett’s terms, Russian workers could imagine a future outside capitalism because they could remember a past outside it.
This did not merely instill in Lenin one of the most profound sociological insights of all time. It also forced a curious kind of humility on him. Like Jefferson, Madison and the contributors to America’s Federalist Papers, Lenin understood that the new society that would succeed capitalism was something that could only be haltingly, incrementally thought into being after the revolution, when the constraining power of capitalism on the imagination slowly receded.
From what we can adduce of his thirty or so months of holding power after the end of the Russian Civil War, it appears that rather than proceeding with a clear plan to build a particular society, he attempted to ignite the same kind of halting, confused, self-contradictory conversation that allowed America to think liberal capitalism into being, the century from the declaration of Independence to the Supreme Court ruling that all “rights” could adhere to individuals and individuals were the only thing to which rights could adhere.
So, Lenin changed economic policies a number of times and poured money into the arts, hoping expand the horizon of possibilities available in the Russian political imaginary. He made some big mistakes too in limiting necessary discourse to make the project possible. But often our imagination of what 1921-24 was like is coloured by our knowledge of what was to come next.
What followed Lenin’s death was, of course, a tragedy with the rise of Joseph Stalin. There are many things for which to indict Stalin (and Lenin, for that matter). But central to the problem of Stalin is this: he believed that the Soviet Union was not only imaginable but had already been imagined by him. The experimental art and literature of Leninism came to be supplanted by Soviet Realism. What is meant by “realism” is clear: the real is that which already exists, has already been imagined, is already known. The limits of Soviet communism became the limits of a single man’s consciousness formed under monarchical absolutism and Dickensian capitalism.
My refusal to describe an eco-socialist future for BC or Canada or the Pacific Northwest does not just come from an attempt at a Leninist humility, a willingness to take seriously how seriously capitalism has narrowed my horizon of possibility and reshaped my imagination in fetishistic, solipsistic ways. It also comes from an understanding of the totalitarianism that is incipient in believing one can imagine a future beyond capitalism with the tools capitalism has placed at our disposal.
For this reason, we need to read history. We need to read speculative fiction. We need to read the myths and stories of cultures far off in space and time. And we need to practice our social imagination in dreaming up other ways of being, knowing and working. But we should not confuse that for fashioning a plan or blueprint for the post-capitalist world. All we can do is ready ourselves for that task when it is thrust upon us.
Stuart, A friend of mine suggested I take a look at your blog and I read your four part piece on identitarianism and this post. I find your ideas very well thought out and insightful and you articulate them beautifully. I also very much appreciate your reticence in overstepping what you can say given your professional expertise — “the humility of Lenin” as you so eloquently put it. I also find your advice for how we prepare ourselves for the task spot on. But I also believe that while we cannot envision the solution, we can design the tools for those that can. To pull an idea from one of my most beloved pieces of speculative fiction, Deep Thought might not have been able to come up with the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything, but he could design a computer that could. And had some nice fjords as well. [My usual nom-de-web is “Slartibartfast”, by the way…] Or, from another of the many worlds I lived in when I was younger, Hari Seldon wasn’t the Foundation, he discovered the mathematics of psychohistory that made the Foundation possible.
Our job isn’t to tell people how to build a post-capitalist economy — as you correctly point out, no one can envision what the world will look like after such a paradigm shift occurs. That is the nature of an Epoch. But this paradigm shift — and I believe that it is coming — will be pioneered by these same people shaped by capitalism using the tools they have have in hand to manipulate innovative technologies in new contexts.
As a mathematician (ever since I read the Foundation in my early teens, I knew I wanted to be a psychohistorian when I grew up…), I believe that one of the most powerful tools at our disposal for interrogating unknown unknowns is inductive logic.
In other words, from our readings of history, speculative fiction, myths, and from our social imagination, we need to ask ourselves what the characteristics of the post-capitalist world would be and start deriving necessary and sufficient conditions for achieving those ends. Which is to say we need to find the means capable of shaping the ends we wish to reach.
Before we do this, it would be helpful to sharpen some of the tools we have in our box — particularly those related to the communication of the ideas central to the dialectic we wish to explore. In this case it is desirable to have a nuanced discussion about epistemology and a well-developed theory of value. (After all, isn’t that all anyone is looking for? You may have noticed that I’m a fellow geek…)I’m sure you are far more familiar that I with the epistemological definition of knowledge as “justified true belief” and someone displaying the humility of Lenin no doubt has a deep understanding of value in the Marxist sense. Unfortunately, a corollary to your argument is that these tools are insufficient for discussing the future we cannot yet imagine. So let’s see if we can imagine ourselves some better tools…
Immanuel Kant defined value as “beauty, good, and truth”, but this formulation lacks the categorical imperative that Kant believed central to moral value as “truth” cannot be universally agreed on or objectively defined even if the other limbs lack this flaw, which is debatable. Kant’s first formulation of the categorical imperative is:
“Act only according to that maxim whereby you can, at the same time, will that it should be a universal law”
Unfortunately, this definition is subjective as it requires a determination of an individual’s will and their perception of what should be a universal law. I think we can do better.
In his work Philosophy of Value, Tsuneaboro Makiguchi (the founder of the Soka Gakkai, literally “value creation society” a lay organization of Nichiren Buddhists) tells us that while truth is an absolute, value is a relationship. In other words, value comes from the stories — myths if you will — that we create to give our lives meaning.
Mr. Makiguchi defines value as having three components: beauty, good, and gain, defined as follows:
Beauty (µ) – Self-evident worth
Good (ß) – Gain of the group
Gain (Ω) – Personal benefit
I see these three limbs of value interacting in cycles which I call The Eightfold Path of Value Creation, a framework to discuss value which I will outline below.
But first, let’s consider knowledge and the definition of “justified true belief”. This also lacks the categorical imperative and is not particularly useful for practical applications. We can avoid this problem by using the concept of “perceived justified true belief” and addressing an individual’s perception, something that can be objectively discussed and subjectively measured at the expense of abstracting the categorical imperative to the meta-level. Furthermore, we can add a bit of math and come up with something I like to call “computational Bayesian epistemology” (CBE). In CBE, we can rank our confidence in any statement on a scale from ø to 11 (this one goes to “11”) where the odds of the given hypothesis being true are as follows:
ø – FALSE
0 – 1 to 99
1 – 1 to 9
2 – 2 to 8
3 – 3 to 7
4 – 4 to 6
5 – 1 to 1
6 – 6 to 4
7 – 7 to 3
8 – 8 to 2
9 – 9 to 1
10 – 99 to 1
11 – TRUE
This constitutes a Bayesian prior that defines a person’s level of conviction regarding a proposition. Which allows us to computationally determine how our level of certainty should change in light of new evidence by applying Bayes’ theorem.
If you’re not familiar with Bayesian inference, the process is simple: you take your prior (the odds expressed as a ratio, i.e. 2/8 instead of 2 to 8) and multiply by a quantity known as the likelihood ratio. The likelihood ratio is simply the probability of the evidence occurring if the hypothesis is correct divided by the probability of the evidence occurring if the hypothesis is false (this is simply the confidence level from frequentist statistics). The result of this is a posterior probability that tells you mathematically how your perceived certainty changes as a result of scientific evidence. The quantities ø and 11 represent certainty: beliefs that will not change regardless of whatever evidence is presented.
We can then use this to divide statements into categories such as positions, opinions, and hypotheses and subcategories (respectively) like principles, beliefs, and policies. In this context, the elements of a debate could, for instance, be classified as facts (data), evidence (information), and analysis (intelligence) and we could discuss aspects such as confidence (prior probability), significance (level of commitment), and plasticity (willingness to reconsider) of statements.
There is a lot more work to be done to turn this into a useable theory, but this outlines the bones of a way to describe and manipulate a set of positions, opinions, and hypotheses of a group or an individual.
In the case of value, I have come up with eight three-limbed virtuous cycles by which value can be created. If one “primes the pump” by adding the elements of beauty (µ), good (ß), and gain (Ω) in that order, the cycle creates more beauty and keeps going (µ -> ß -> Ω -> µ -> ß ->…). I’ve classified eight different types of value that can be created.
Capital
µ Reputation
ß Resource
Ω Revenue
Action – The Way of Practice
µ Service
ß Assistance
Ω Encouragement
Worthyness
µ Need
ß Entitlement
Ω Privilege
Empiricals
µ Data
ß Information
Ω Intelligence
Expertise – The Way of Insight
µ Knowledge – perceived justified true belief
ß Understanding – insight into of comprehension of the meaning of knowledge
Ω Wisdom – the practical application of understanding
Control
µ Authority
ß Responsibility
Ω Accountability
Justification (Training)
µ Amateur
ß Professional
Ω Bodhisattva
Commitment
µ Child
ß Parent
Ω Buddha
Anyway, this is probably all just evidence that I think about abstruse nonsense too much, but if you are interested, I’d be happy to discuss this further. I really do believe that while what you said is completely correct regarding our inability to conceive of what the post-capitalist economy will look like, we are destined, like Deep Thought, to design the tools that will allow the inevitable dreamers and pioneers to create it. Anyway, I’m sure our mutual friend will contact you and mention me sooner or later — I’ve got some other ideas that he thinks you might be interested in and I’m certainly interested in hearing more about your thoughts.
By the way, I also came up with the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything. On a Wednesday. In my dressing gown. And the world didn’t end on Thursday. The answer is “42” and it is meaningful and satisfying (and no one needs to get nailed to anything). But that’s a discussion for another time… Hope you enjoyed my rambles at the very least.